Will Aaron Judge break the HR record this year?

Looking at home runs per game played in some of the best seasons.

andrewstiegler
2022-09-14

Aaron Judge has been on a tear recently, hitting two more HR last night to get very close to the single-season record. Here’s a look at Judge’s homeruns against games played this season.

It looks like a fairly linear slope, so I’ll add a linear trendline and check the fit. I’ll also add Bonds’s record-breaking season to the plot.

The linear regression has a correleation coefficient of about 0.99, so it’s a pretty good fit. Based on the linear model and the Yankees having 19 more games to play, Judge will end up with ~66.4 home runs for the year if he plays every game.

Here’s Judge’s 2022 season against a few of the other top home run seasons for comparison.

Name Home Runs Year
Barry Bonds 73 2001
Mark McGwire 70 1998
Sammy Sosa 68 1998

Citation

For attribution, please cite this work as

andrewstiegler (2022, Sept. 14). the data doctoR: Will Aaron Judge break the HR record this year?. Retrieved from https://andrewstiegler.github.io/posts/2022-09-14-will-aaron-judge-break-the-hr-record-this-year/

BibTeX citation

@misc{andrewstiegler2022will,
  author = {andrewstiegler, },
  title = {the data doctoR: Will Aaron Judge break the HR record this year?},
  url = {https://andrewstiegler.github.io/posts/2022-09-14-will-aaron-judge-break-the-hr-record-this-year/},
  year = {2022}
}